Market Forecast – 17 Jul 2011

Stocks. Peak was Friday 29th April rather than May/June as I forecast last quarter. The day before the peak I sent out a tweet that said: A fun prediction. My call is that US stock market topped yesterday. Won’t see this level again for more than ten years. See it here on 28th April:!/PaulEmmersonCom

So I was two days early in calling the top. Not bad!!

I still expect down into mid 2012 as before. Perhaps a bounce September of this year to Jan 2012.

Bonds. No change. Previous forecasts looking good. I still believe that US bonds will follow the same path as Greek bonds later this year.

Gold. I was wrong about the multi-month decline. Continued strength now, with sharp pullbacks. No bubble here. Very bullish long term.

Other markets. All last quarter’s forecast were very good. Yuan appreciated against dollar and commodities did indeed top out shortly after the post ($CRB topped 29th April along with wider market). Now I expect continuing strength of Asian currencies, and commodities in a sideways pattern for a while. I also expect a worsening euro crisis.


S&P 500 index on 17 July 2011 (S&P 500 is proxy for stocks in general)

US Treasury Bond on 17 July 2011


Gold on 17 July 2011


For most recent charts click on link: S&P / US T-Bond / Gold